Should you fill up today or wait?

Fuel prices move slowly, then all at once. Understanding the lag between wholesale and the pump can help you make a sensible decision.

Wholesale leads, the pump follows

Refiners and supermarkets buy fuel on wholesale markets. Retail prices usually follow wholesale movements with a lag of roughly one to two weeks — and cuts tend to be passed on more slowly than rises.

Supermarkets move first

When a national price cut is announced, the big supermarkets usually lead and independent stations follow over the next few days. If wholesale has fallen sharply and your local supermarket has not moved, waiting can pay.

What the numbers cannot tell you

No public dataset predicts the pump price. Crude oil, the exchange rate, refining margins and local competition all move independently. A signal is not a forecast.

A practical rule

• If you need fuel, buy it. Running low to chase a few pence is a false economy.
• If you have half a tank and wholesale has fallen for a week, waiting a few days is reasonable.
• Ignore anyone promising a specific date for a price cut.

Our finder shows current reported prices and the local range, so you can see what stations have reported before deciding when to buy.

Written by UKFuelPrices.uk, using open data from the UK Government Fuel Finder scheme. Last reviewed September 2026 · see our methodology.